NOAA’s winter forecast for JH looks warm and dry

Carlton Robbins
October 21, 2018

Overall, no part of the forecast to have below-average temperatures.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, predicts that this year's El Nino is expected to be weak, so other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale.

The northwestern United States, including parts of Northern California near the OR border, is likely to see the highest chances of warmer temperatures.

In the valley of the Tennessee, the OH valley and mid-Atlantic States (NJ, NY, MD and PA), the temperature will be or on the secondary level or above.

The organization's predictive maps placed ME in a sweeping band of orange, signifying that center forecasters believe the state is among those with a 40 percent to 50 percent chance of being "warmer than normal".

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NOAA says much of the northern and western USA will have warmer-than-normal conditions with the southeast having equal chances for temps that run either below-normal, near-normal or above-normal.

While this obviously shouldn't be taken as gospel, it does give us a brief look at what we can expect heading into the winter season.

Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western USA, with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. States from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains and into the Northeast are likely to have above-average temperatures, the NOAA reported.

If NOAA's outlook holds true and much of the nation is milder than normal, it will mark the fourth straight warmer-than-normal winter for the Lower 48. This video below explains El Nino further and provides greater details about NOAA's winter outlook.

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest. He also forecasted a warm winter, heavily based on weak snowfall in Siberia. The next update will be available on November 15. That means, invariably, some areas will experience conditions opposite the most likely forecast even if most locations are correctly predicted, Halpert said.

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